UFC TUF China Predictions

The Ultimate Fighter China Finale is on Saturday, but it’s early in the morning if you live in North America. Make sure you get all your picks in on Friday night. A few familiar faces will be on the main card including Dong Hyun Kim, Hatsu Hioki and Matt Mitrione.

TUF China Finale Best Bets

  • Bet Matt Mitrione +108 (Pinnacle) vs. Shawn Jordan

Matt Mitrione (6-3) only has one win over De Fries in his last four fights and he needs a win to start off 2014. Shawn Jordan (15-5) is always a threat with his power, but Mitrione will have a 6.5’’ reach advantage and I don’t think Jordan will be able to get inside.

Mitrione also has extremely powerful leg kicks that will keep Jordan at a distance and wear him down as the fight goes on. Mitrione averages more SLpM than Jordan and his stand-up defense is also much better. I think Mitrione at plus money is a great bet.

  • Bet Dong Hyun Kim / Hatsu Hioki Parlay –159 (Pinnacle)

I like both Dong Hyun Kim (18-2-1) and Hatsu Hioki (26-7-2) as favorites in China. Kim is fighting John Hathaway (17-1) who has been on an impressive run, but his competition hasn’t been even close to the level that he’ll face when he steps in the cage with Kim.

Hioki is fighting Ivan Menjivar (25-11) and I’m a bit worried about this one because of how bad Hioki has struggled. He is winless in 3 fights now, but he’s better than Menjivar by far. His grappling is better and he has a massive 9’’ reach edge in the stand-up.

  • Bet Yui Chul Nam –155 (5Dimes) vs. Kazuki Tokudome

Yui Chul Nam (17-4-1) is making his UFC debut, but this is an experienced fighter and there is a reason why he is the favorite to win this fight against Kazuki Tokudome (12-4-1). Tokudome is 1-1 in the UFC with a loss to Parke, but he didn’t look bad in the fight.

Tokudome has struggled in the stand-up in his two fights, as he’s only connecting on 37% of his strikes and he’s absorbing over three strikes per minute in the cage. Nam will be able to slowly pick him apart. It’s likely to be a decision win, but at –155 the price is right.

  • Bet Kim / Hioki / Wang Sai Parlay +129 (Pinnacle)
  • Bet Kim / Hioki / Sai / Mitrione Parlay +377 (Pinnacle)

I’m also betting these two parlays, as I think these picks will come through on Saturday. The card has a lot of questionable fights that could go either way I feel, but these four fights. I’ll either have a great or terrible event based on how these four fighters perform.

Wang Sai (6-4-1) is fighting Lipeng Zhang (6-7-1) in the TUF China Welterweight Final in the co-main event. Zhang is a tough wrestler, but he often gets submitted (5X) in the cage. Sai has the edge in striking by a long shot and I think he’ll win this fight fairly easily.

Sai also has two submission wins in his career already. Sai should look to weaken Zhang early in the stand-up with his power striking, but if Zhang lands a takedown Sai would be smart to try and lock in a submission. Either way I think Sai comes out on top.

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