UFC Fight Night 28 Predictions

There is another UFC event on tomorrow night. These weekday events are killing me. Sorry for getting the picks up late this week, but here are my best bets for UFC Fight Night 28, which will be aired for free on FOX 1 starting at 5PM with the prelim fights.

UFC Fight Night 28 Betting Predictions

  • Glover Teixeira by TKO/KO +115 (5Dimes) vs. Ryan Bader

Glover Teixeira (21-2) is on a 19-fight win streak since 2006 and fights Ryan Bader (15-3) in the main event. Teixeira is a big favorite in the fight, but I like him to win by TKO/KO at plus money. Teixeira has 12 wins by TKO/KO while Bader has been KO’ed just once.

Bader was knocked out two fights ago by Machida. Against T10 competition Bader doesn’t have the skill to keep up. Bader is a great wrestler, but he’s going to have problems with the striking of Teixeira as well as the grappling. I just hope he doesn’t go for the sub.

  • Joseph Benavidez by TKO/KO +160 (5Dimes) vs. Jussier Da Silva

Joseph Benavidez (18-3) only has 5 career TKO/KO wins, but two of those have come in his L4 UFC fights. Jussier Da Siva (15-2) is 1-1 in the UFC with a TKO loss against Dodson. Benavidez has improved on his striking and this should be a quick victory for him.

Formiga will try to work the takedown, but he doesn’t stand a chance against Benavidez. Look for the Alpha Male member to keep this fight standing until he knocks out Da Silva. Formiga has never been submitted and I expect Benavidez to just work his striking.

  • Yushin Okami +230 (5Dimes) vs. Ronaldo Souza

Yushin Okami (29-7) has won his L3 fights with his latest win coming against Hector Lombard. Ronaldo Souza (18-3) has won his L4 including his UFC debut against Camozzi. Souza is a great grappler, but I feel like Okami is better in other areas including striking.

Okami has a nasty jab that he uses to keep his opponents at bay, which is why he has stopped 84% of takedown attempts on him in his career. Okami can keep this fight standing and use his jab to keep space from Souza and earn a decision victory I feel.

  • Teixeira + Benavidez TKO/KO + Okami +962 (5Dimes) Parlay

On my parlay I’m Teixeira SU just in case he is unable to knockout Bader in the 3-round fight. I really think that Benavidez is the best pick on the entire card to win by TKO/KO at plus money. He should be able to come into the cage and destroy his opponent.

Okami is risky to put on the parlay, but at roughly 10/1 I’m happy betting a ½ unit on the parlay since it’s just a weekday event. I’ll be keeping it simple tomorrow night with these plays and we’ll have to see what happens, but I do like that all bets are plus money.

posted in Predictions

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