UFC 166 Predictions

The UFC has a pay-per-view event on Saturday night at the Toyota Center in Houston. Everyone is waiting for the main event to get underway between Velasquez and Dos Santos, but the rest of the main card features some important fights in multiple divisions.

UFC 166 Betting Predictions

• Bet Cain Velasquez –190 (Pinnacle) vs. Junior Dos Santos

Since losing to JDS in the 1^st fight Velasquez has won three in a row. He has beaten Antonio Silva twice and in between that he beat JDS. In the 2^nd fight between these two fighters Velasquez controlled the entire five rounds and looked like the better fighter.

As long as JDS doesn’t land a 1^st round TKO/KO I can see Velasquez dominating the fight with his wrestling. Velasquez has excellent takedowns for a big man and his tempo is next level. I’ll risk the juice on this bet and keep it simple by betting Cain to win SU.

• Bet Cormier vs. Nelson Goes the Distance –155 (BetDSI)

Daniel Cormier is a massive favorite coming into this fight, which is why I looked at the alternative markets. Roy Nelson is a TKO/KO artist, but he doesn’t have much of a game other than that. Cormier is more accurate, more active and has much better wrestling.

This fight is similar to the main event. Cormier has to always be careful of the knockout against Nelson due to his power. Dating back to 2009 Nelson is 6-5 in the UFC and all of his losses have been by decision. I expect a decision loss for Nelson in this fight.

• Bet Gabriel Gonzaga +180 (SportBet) vs. Shawn Jordan

Shawn Jordan has won his L2 fights by TKO after losing a decision to Kongo and I know many people are jumping on him to win this fight because Gabriel Gonzaga has been knocked out six times in his career. I’ll admit Gonzaga does have a weak chin.

However, Gonzaga is an experienced veteran and if he had a good camp he can beat Jordan. One problem with Jordan is that he has taken a lot of shots in his fights. Gonzaga has an edge in wrestling and he should look to take this fight to the ground if possible.

• C.B. Dollaway +160 (Carbon) vs. Tim Boetsch

 Dollaway is another underdog I’m on this weekend in Houston. Dollaway leaves a lot to be desired with his striking, but he has good stand-up defense and limits the big shots he takes. He has only been knocked out twice in his career and both were in 2011.

Since then Dollaway has won two fights in a row and I think he has a big edge against Boetsch with his wrestling. Boetsch is terrible at stopping takedowns and I expect Dollaway to come into this fight with the game plan of taking Boetsch down and pounding him.

I haven’t finalized my parlays yet for this week, but I’m definitely going to use Velasquez, Cormier and Dodson. I’ll be avoiding the Melendez vs. Sanchez fight because I don’t trust Melendez at such short odds. I’m thinking about using Lombard/Noons as well.