UFC 165 Predictions

The UFC is coming back to Canada. UFC 165 is being held at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto on Saturday (Sept. 21^st). There are two title fights on the main card that I’m excited to watch. I’ll be down the street from the event at the Real Sports Bar for UFC 165.

UFC 165 Betting Predictions

• Matt Mitrione –116 (Pinnacle) vs. Brendan Schaub

Matt Mitrione (6-2) and Brendan Schaub (9-3) are both knockout strikers and this fight is likely to end by TKO/KO. Mitrione has won 5 of his 6 fights by TKO/KO while Schaub has won 7 fights by TKO/KO. I think Schaub has the weaker chin though and will lose.

Schaub won his last fight by decision over Lavar Johnson, which was impressive. Schaub only has 3 career losses and each of those was by TKO/KO. Mitrione has the better stand-up defense, better accuracy and lands more significant strikes per minute.

• Francis Carmont +169 (SportBet) vs. Costas Philippou

Costas Philippou (12-2) and Francis Carmont (21-7) are both on incredible runs right now. Philippou has won 5 in a row and Carmont has won 10 in a row (5-0 in the UFC). I’m betting on the underdog in this one and betting against Philippou for the first time ever.

I’m a fan of Philippou, but this fight is going to be trouble for him. Carmont has the ability to take the fight to the ground, but more importantly he has a 5’’ reach advantage over Philippou in striking. He can keep Costas at bay in this fight and win a decision.

• Khabib Nurmagomedov –209 (Pinnacle) vs. Pat Healy

If you follow me I rarely bet anything close to –200, but I have to take a shot here for 2 units. I would not be betting against Khabib Nurmagomedov (20-0) right now. Pat Healy (29-16-1) is just a stepping-stone for the young Russian fighter and he should easily win.

In his last fight he tossed Trujillo around the ring and won by decision because he was unable to finish. Rather than risk him to finish this fight I’m going with the money line. Nurmagomedov will land as many takedowns as he wants and just has to watch for the sub.

• Jones / Barao / Nurmagomedov +101 (Pinnacle)

This parlay I really like and I’ll be betting 2 units on this wager as well. Jon Jones fights Alexander Gustafsson in the main event and while I’m a fan of the massive Gustafsson, I can’t see him winning. Jones is more accurate in the stand-up and better defensively.

He should be able to takedown Gustafsson as well and Jones has still never been taken down in the cage. Barao is another extremely well rounded fighter. He’ll fight Eddie Wineland in the co-main event and I expect him to take this fight down to the ground often.

I have to add Nurmagomedov as well to the parlay to get it paying around evens. This looks like a strong parlay and although the payout isn’t going to be huge it should hit. Odds on the prelims are yet to be released yet, but these are my main card picks.