UFC 158 Predictions

The UFC is back in Canada this weekend for UFC 158 in Montreal at the Bell Centre. The highlight of the card is the championship fight in the welterweight division between Georges St. Pierre and Nick Diaz. Check out my best bets for the fight card below.

UFC 158 Betting Predictions

Jake Ellenberger (28-6) is 7-2 in the UFC with his only losses against Condit and Kampmann. Ellenberger can get it done with his striking or wrestling. He lands 2.61 strikes per minute in the cage and he also averages 3.07 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Marquardt defends 73% of takedown attempts against him compared to Ellenberger who stops 93%. Ellenberger has shown that he has cardio issues in the cage late in fights, but he should win the first two rounds if he mixes up boxing/wrestling.

  • Bet on Colin Fletcher +229 (SportBet)

Colin Fletcher (8-2) and Mike Ricci (7-3) were both finalists on TUF seasons. They’re both fighting for their life in the UFC and I’m surprised that Fletcher is such a big underdog. Fletcher has solid takedown skills and that is a weakness of Ricci.

Ricci lost to Colton Smith in the TUF finals because Smith took him down at will and dominated the fight. Fletcher isn’t a threat in the stand-up, but he has shown great ground skills and if he can take Ricci down to the ground consistently he could win.

Johny Hendricks (14-1) has been on a roll in the UFC. He has shown his power and he still only has 1 career loss against Rick Story by decision in 2010. Hendricks would be in line for a title fight against GSP if he can beat Carlos Condit (28-6) this weekend.

Hendricks is more active in the striking department and more accurate than Condit. He’s also much stronger at takedowns, but he has to watch out for Condit on the ground because he will try to submit from just about any position on the canvas.

  • Bet on Georges St. Pierre to win by TKO/KO +550 (5Dimes)

St. Pierre only has 8 TKO/KO wins in his career and Diaz hasn’t been knocked out since 2007 against Noons, but I think this fight is a better one than any for St. Pierre to earn a KO win. He hasn’t had a stoppage win since KO’ing Penn in 2009.

Nick Diaz is getting a title shot finally, but fighting St. Pierre in Montreal is extremely difficult. Diaz just lost to Condit last time out and he’s lucky to be getting this title fight and I think its only because GSP want it. St. Pierre I feel can KO Diaz to shut him up in the UFC, remember what he done to B.J Penn when he pissed him off!

St. Pierre is going to step in with his jabs before looking for the takedown. Diaz will get frustrated by the takedowns and we’ve all seen how vicious St. Pierre’s ground game can be when he wants to turn it on for his fans in Montreal.

  • Bet on St. Pierre / Hendricks / Ellenberger +245 (Pinnacle)

I’m sticking with the favourites on the main card for my UFC 158 parlay bet. St. Pierre isn’t going to lose his title to Diaz. I really can’t see Ellenberger losing and the only selection on this parlay that worries me a bit is Hendricks against Condit.

posted in Predictions

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