UFC on Fuel TV 8 Predictions

UFC on Fuel TV 8 is in Japan this weekend, but the main card will still start at 10pm ET. There are six fights on the main card this weekend with a number of excellent Japanese fighters that should have an edge fighting in their country in front of their fans.

The past couple events have been absolutely terrible for me, but I’m going to do my best to bounce back this week. I’m going to limit the underdogs that I bet because while I see value in the underdogs I bet they just haven’t been hitting enough as of late.

UFC on Fuel TV 8 Best Bets

  • Bet on Stefan Struve -170 vs. Mark Hunt (5Dimes)

Stefan Struve (25-5) and Mark Hunt (8-7) are two heavyweights that have both been on nice runes. Struve is the winner of his L4 fights (All by Stoppage) and he’s a favorite to beat Hunt who has won his L3. My best bet on the entire card is Struve to win.

Struve has a 1’1’’ height advantage and a 9’’ reach advantage against Hunt. The Skyscraper has won 16 fights by submission and in the past Hunt has had trouble against submissions (Lost 6 fights by sub). Struve averages 3.92 sub attempts every 15 minutes.

On paper these two match-up well, but Struve has a considerable edge in submissions and is much bigger. Struve will need to respect the power of Hunt, but if he takes his time to set-up a submission he should be able to finish the fight.

  • Bet on Rani Yahya +105 vs. Mizuto Hirota (Ladbrokes)

Rani Yahya (17-7) has won 15 of his fights by submission including his last fight against Josh Grispi. Yahya has poor striking in the stand-up, but he averages 2.53 takedowns per 15 minutes and I expect him to overwhelm Mizuto Hirota (14-5-1).

Hirota is making his debut in the UFC. He has power in his strikes (8 TKO/KO Wins), but lacks accuracy. Yahya has been knocked out 2X in his career, but against top competition. Hirota has the benefit of fighting in Japan, but Yahya is the better fighter.

  • Bet on Alex Caceres -140 vs. Kyung Ho Kang (Pinnacle)

Kyung Ho Kang (11-6) makes his UFC debut on the UFC on Fuel TV 8 prelims this Saturday. Alex Caceres (8-5) is now 3-3 with the UFC after winning his L2 fights against Page and Tezuka. I think this fight will be close, but Caceres will win a decision.

The biggest weakness of Caceres is he gets submitted too often (4X). Kang has 8 submissions on the amateur circuit, but that often doesn’t translate to success in the UFC. Caceres needs to keep this fight standing up where he has an edge over Kang.

  • Bet on Struve/Yahya Parlay +226 (Sportbet)

I’m going to try and double up on Struve and Yahya this weekend. These are my two best bets this weekend. I’m not going to try and get greedy by adding anyone else to the parlay either. At +226 this parlay has a great shot to hit in my opinion.

  • Bet on Gomi/Bahadurzada Parlay +1196 (Sportbet)

The two big underdogs I like the most are Takanori Gomi to beat Diego Sanchez and Siyar Bahadurzada vs. Dong Hyun Kim. I’m not betting them SU this weekend because I haven’t been hitting these big dogs lately, but at 12/1 I’m taking a ½ unit shot here.

posted in Predictions

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