UFC on Fuel TV 10 Predictions

UFC on Fuel TV 10 on Saturday night is the TUF 2 Brazil Finale and will be held in Fortaleza, Brazil. The main event on the card is a rematch between Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Fabricio Werdum who were the two coaches on TUF 2 Brazil.

The TUF 2 Brazil tournament final is between Leonardo Santos and William Macario. The card is dominated by Brazilians and we have some great fights in store. The prelims start at 4:30pm ET on Facebook and the main card begins at 8:00pm ET on Fuel TV.

UFC on Fuel TV 10 Best Bets

  • Bet on Ildemar Alcantara -184 (SportBet)

If you’re a regular you know I don’t bet many favorites above -150 unless on a parlay. This is one of my favorite bets in awhile, as I can’t see Alcantara losing this middleweight fight against Leandro Silva (11-0-1) who took the fight on short notice.

Silva normally fights at lightweight, but he’s moving up to middleweight to take the fight in his UFC debut. Alcantara submitted Prado in his UFC debut in January and looked great, as he was able to land two takedowns and lock in a kneebar.

Alcantara struggled in the stand-up a bit against Prado, but his ground game was excellent. He should be able to overpower the smaller Silva in this fight and win without much of a problem. Silva has 7 submission wins, but none in his L3 amateur fights.   

Karlos Vemola (9-3) fights Caio Magalhaes (5-1) early on the prelims on Saturday. Vemola is 1-1 since dropping to middleweight with a win over Massenzio and a loss against Carmont. Magalhaes lost his UFC debut last June against Buddy Roberts.

Injuries have kept Magalhaes out of the cage and he wasn’t impressive in his loss against Roberts at UFC on FX 3. Vemola is a big middleweight and he should be able to take this fight to the ground, mount Magalhaes and finish the fight with his striking.

  • Bet on Fabricio Werdum / Erick Silva & Alcantara +149 (5Dimes)

My parlay is on Werdum, Silva and Alcantara. I’ve explained why I’m betting Alcantara already. Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1) fights Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-7-1-1) in the main event. Werdum is 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Nelson and Russow.

Minotauro won his last fight by submission over Herman, but Werdum has world class BJJ and won’t be submitted. Werdum has the edge in striking and Nogueira has been knocked out twice in the past. I expect Werdum to win this fight by TKO/KO.

Erick Silva (14-3) is a huge favorite to beat Jason High (16-3) and I added him to this parlay. Silva lost his last fight to Fitch, but he held his own on the ground in that fight. High has won his L7 and will look to wrestle Silva, but his level of competition is lower.

Silva comes into this fight with a reach advantage of close to 3’’ and his striking is deadly accurate. He’ll be able to beat High in the striking department and as long as he doesn’t expose himself on the ground he’ll get back into the win column.

posted in Predictions

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