UFC on FOX 7 Predictions

UFC on FOX 7 is this Saturday at the HP Pavilion in San Jose, California. The four-fight main card will be live on FOX at 8PM and it features some excellent match-ups including a title fight between Henderson and Melendez in the lightweight division.

The prelims will feature eight fights this weekend and the action will be available live on Facebook and FX. The prelims have a few great fighters that you won’t want to miss on Saturday including Mendes, Carmont, Larkin, Benavidez and Dillashaw.

UFC on FOX 7 Preview & Predictions

• Bet on Benson Henderson to Win By Decision -165 (5Dimes)

Henderson is 6-0 in the UFC now with his L3 wins being very impressive. Smooth dominated Nate Diaz in his last fight and he’ll now need to defend his title for the third time against the talented Gilbert Melendez (21-2) who has dominated in Strikeforce.

Melendez has been impressive in Strikeforce, but he doesn’t have the same quality of victories that Henderson has. Smooth is better in the striking department, his submissions are better and he has experience against the best fighters in the division.

The wrestling is fairly even and Melendez will try to work his offence through takedowns. I expect Henderson to win, but his odds are -250, so to save on the amount I risk I bet Henderson to win by decision just like his six other fights in the UFC.

• Bet on Nate Diaz to Win -175 (BetOnline)

Nate Diaz (16-8) lost a tough 5-round decision to Henderson last time out, but I think he’ll be able to bounce back on Saturday against Josh Thomson (19-5). Both fighters like to work submissions, but neither fighter is that effective with takedowns.

I think this fight will be spent standing up most of the time and the edge in stand-up goes to Nate. Diaz has excellent boxing in the cage and he also has a 5’’ reach advantage over Thomson. Diaz will score the decision victory if he keeps the fight standing.

• Bet on Francis Carmont to Win -130 (BetDSI)

The big Frenchman, Francis Carmont (20-7), is 4-0 in the UFC with wins over Camozzi and Lawlor. Lorenz Larkin (13-0-1) is making his UFC debut after coming over from Strikeforce. Larkin’s most impressive win was in his last fight against Robbie Lawler.

The reason I like Carmont is because I expect this fight to stay standing up. Larkin only averages 1 takedown per 15 minutes and he only hits 67% of his takedown attempts. Carmont should keep this fight standing where he has an edge.

Carmont has a huge reach 78’’ compared to Larkin who has a 72.5’’ reach. Carmont is a less active striker, but he’s more accurate in the cage and I think his reach and height advantage will help him keep a comfortable distance from Larkin while teeing off.

• Bet on Henderson / Diaz Parlay +120 (BetOnline)

I really think Diaz should outclass Thomson this weekend, especially if he keeps the fight standing. I also expect Henderson to be able to retain his title against Melendez. I bet this parlay in case Henderson wins by stoppage and I lose my decision bets on him.

• Bet on Mein / Mendes / Benavidez / Dillashaw +111 (SportBet)

If you’re looking to parlay favourites on a parlay your best bet are these four fighters. Mein fights Matt Brown on the main card and the other three fighters are huge favourites on the prelims and all will be expected to win if they want better fights.