UFC on FOX 12 Predictions
The UFC is back on FOX this Saturday at the HP Pavilion in sunny San Jose, California. UFC on FOX 12 has a strong fight card for a free event and it isn’t packed with filler fights. There are some big favorites, but I also like a couple underdogs on the card as well.
UFC on FOX 12 Best Bets
- Bet Dennis Bermudez –152 (SportBet) vs. Clay Guida
Clay Guida (31-14) beat Kawajiri in his last fight who has good wrestling, but Dennis Bermudez (13-3) is much tougher. Bermudez has strung together six wins in a row. Bermudez does a great job at mixing up his striking and takedowns in the cage.
He averages 4.53 SLpM and 1.58 takedowns per round, which is considerably better than Guida. Bermudez has 91% TD defense also, which will play a big role in this fight. If Guida is unable to keep Bermudez pinned to the mat he’s going to get picked apart.
- Bet Gilbert Burns –152 (Pinnacle) vs. Andreas Stahl
Gilbert Burns (7-0) and Andreas Stahl (9-0) are both making their UFC debut. Stahl has fought some tough European competition, but he isn’t really a finisher. Burns has won all of his fights in the 1st round by utilizing his BJJ to tear his opponents apart.
Burns is a decorated BJJ practitioner and is a member of the Blackzilians. Stahl likes to grapple, but that’s not going to work against someone as skilled as Burns. I rarely bet on fighters that are making their UFC debut, but I’m surprised these odds aren’t higher.
- Bet Bobby Green +241 (SportsInteraction) vs. Josh Thomson
I feel we’re getting good value on Bobby Green (22-5) because no one is sure how his mental state will be in this fight and the fact he took the fight on short notice. Green has won seven fights in a row dating back to Strikeforce and he’s 3-0 in the UFC already.
Josh Thomson (20-6) is a veteran and this fight may be too much for Green, but I question Thomson’s mental state as well because he was contemplating retirement. Green has a 2’’ reach advantage and I think he’ll have success with takedowns if he’s aggressive.
- Bet on Lawler vs. Brown to Start Round Two –235 (5Dimes)
Robbie Lawler (23-10-0-1) takes on Matt Brown (19-11). Brown has never been knocked out in his career. I expect Lawler to pick up his 2nd win since losing to Hendricks. However, I don’t expect the power striker to end this fight in R1, as Brown is experienced.
- Bet Lawler / Johnson / Jedrzejczyk Parlay +108 (Pinnacle)
Brown is a live dog, but I expect Lawler to connect late in the fight to win like he did against Ellenberger. Anthony Johnson should be able to manhandle Minotoro. Nogueira may have some early success with his boxing, but it won’t last long when he’s on his back.
Johnson looked good against Davis in his first fight back in the UFC and I’ll ride him here on this parlay. Jedrzejczyk and Carneiro are making their debut in the UFC. From what I’ve been reading this week the undefeated Polish fighter will win this fight easily.