UFC Fight Night 50 Predictions
UFC Fight Night 50 is on Friday night, which makes sense. With CFB and NFL on this weekend it’s much better to host this event on a Friday to draw the biggest number of viewers. The main card is stacked and will get underway at 9:00pm on Fox Sports 1.
UFC Fight Night 50 Best Bets
- Bet Joe Lauzon +125 (5 Dimes) vs. Michael Chiesa
Joe Lauzon (23-9) has been in the UFC since 2006 and he has been impressive. Lauzon is aging, but in his last fight he looked good in a win over Danzig. Michael Chiesa (11-1) is now 4-1 in the UFC and that’s because of strong grappling and submissions like Lauzon.
Chiesa has 75’’ reach, but his striking is poor (1.53 SLpM) and he lacks power. Lauzon has struggled against strikers, but Chiesa isn’t a big threat in that department. I expect Lauzon’s experience to shine and he’ll lock in a submission to win the fight.
- Bet Matt Mitrione +143 (5 Dimes) vs. Derrick Lewis
Derrick Lewis (11-2-0-1) has two KO wins since joining the UFC, but they’ve come against poor competition. Matt Mitrione (7-3) isn’t a fan favorite and he has had his struggles in the UFC, but he looked good in his 1st round KO over Shawn Jordan earlier this year.
Lewis may try to work some takedowns, which worries me a bit, as Mitrione only stops 57% of TD attempts. This is likely to end up a brawl though and I give the edge to Mitrione. His striking is solid, he has power and he has more experience against ranked fighters.
- Bet Rafael Natal –161 (Pinnacle) vs. Chris Camozzi
Rafael Natal (17-6-1) has lost two in a row while Chris Camozzi (19-8) has lost three in a row heading into this fight. Both guys need a win and while I like Camozzi I expect Natal to be able to takedown Camozzi and work him until he can lock in a submission.
Camozzi is an active striker (3.84 SLpM), but Natal doesn’t take much damage (1.84 SApM). Camozzi only stops 55% of TD attempts and he has been submitted four times in his career. I hate betting on a fight with two desperate fighters, but I like Natal a lot.
- Bet Al Iaquinta vs. Rodrigo Damm O2.5 Rounds –183 (Pinnacle)
Al Iaquinta (8-3-1) is a grinder that isn’t going to wow you with many stoppage wins. His last three wins have been by decision and he’s a big favorite to win this week. Rodrigo Damm (12-7) is 2-2 in his L4 fights and all of them have gone to decision.
- Bet Souza / Overeem / Scoggins / Iaquinta Parlay +186 (Pinnacle)
Ronaldo Souza fights Gegard Mousasi in the main event in a rematch from 2008. Mousasi up kicked Souza in a Pride fight back in 08 and knocked him out cold. Souza won’t have forgotten about that KO and I expect him to get the win on Friday night.
I also like Overeem to beat Rothwell, Scoggins to beat Moraga and Iaquinta to beat Damm. Rothwell is dangerous because he has heavy hands, but Overeem showed in his last fight that if he takes it easy he won’t gas as quickly as he normally does.
Scoggins scares me, as he lost to Ortiz recently while his opponent Moraga beat Ortiz not long ago. Iaquinta had his three fight win streak broken in his last fight, but now he fights Damm who is 34. Iaquinta needs to be the aging veteran to stay relevant.