UFC Fight Night 45 Predictions
We have another midweek event coming up on Wednesday (July 16th 2014) at the Revel Casino Hotel in Atlantic City. The main card is on at 7:00pm ET and will feature six fights on Fox Sports 1. Tune in for free and let’s make some money this week.
UFC Fight Night 45 Best Bets
- Bet on Gleison Tibau –134 (SportBet) vs. Pat Healy
Pat Healy is 0-4-0-1 in his UFC career including three losses since September 2013 (Nurmagomedov, Green & Masvidal). He now has to fight Gleison Tibau (28-10) in a match-up that doesn’t bode well for him and he could be on his way out of the UFC with a loss.
Healy likes to execute takedowns (3.31 TD/15M) and use his aggressiveness in the cage, but Tibau has 91% takedown defense. Tibau averages 4.37 TD/15M and is likely to have better success executing, as Healy has displayed poor takedown defense (58%).
- Bet on Alex White –160 (BetDSI) vs. Lucas Martins
Alex White (10-0) won his UFC debut against Payan by 1st round (1:28) KO. Lucas Martins (14-1) is 2-1 in the UFC with his loss coming against Barboza in his debut. Martins has since won against Larsen (KO) and Hernandez (Submission) in impressive fashion.
Martins hasn’t attempted a takedown in his three UFC fights, so this fight will likely be fought standing up. Both fighters are active strikers, but White looked incredible in his debut and at these odds I’ll take a shot on him. Martins is also a fairly inaccurate striker.
- Bet on Rick Story / Donald Cerrone Parlay –108 (SportBet)
Rick Story (16-8) is fighting Leonardo Mafra (11-1). Mafra fought on TUF Brazil, but this is his professional debut. Jumping up to fight Story is too much to ask of him. Look for Story to catch Mafra pushing forward and end the fight with a big TKO/KO.
Donald Cerrone (23-6-0-1) is taking on veteran Jim Miller (24-4-0-1) in the main event. Miller has won two in a row by submission while Cerrone has won three in a row by stoppage. Cerrone has the better boxing and I like him to win by submission or decision.
- Bet on Edson Barboza vs. Evan Dunham Over 1.5 Rounds –180 (5Dimes)
Edson Barboza (13-2) and Evan Dunham (14-5) both lost to Cerrone by submission in their last fight. Barboza averages 9:16 minutes per fight while Dunham averages 11:45 minutes per fight. I expect Dunham to hang on long enough for this fight to go O1.5 rounds.
Dunham doesn’t have the best record, but he has only been stopped twice. Barboza is a well-rounded fighter and I think he’ll end up winning due to his 5’’ reach advantage. A lot of people like Dunham as an underdog, but I expect Barboza to pick up the win.
- Bet Alptekin Ozkilic +249 (5Dimes) vs. John Lineker
One underdog I’m willing to take a shot on this week is Alptekin Ozkilic (9-2). Ozkilic is 1-1 in the UFC after losing to Smolka in his last fight. Ozkilic has never been stopped in his career and I feel that he has a good chance to win if this fight goes the distance.
John Lineker (23-7) is 4-2 in the UFC after losing to Bagautinov in his last fight. Lineker has power, but his cardio isn’t that good and if he doesn’t get an early TKO/KO he fades. Lineker only has 60% TD defense also and Ozkilic has excellent wrestling.