UFC Fight Night 41 Predictions

The UFC is heading to Berlin, Germany for UFC Fight Night 41. This is the first of two UFC events this Saturday and you can watch the action unfold on UFC Fight Pass 12:30PM ET with the four main card fights starting at 3:00PM ET due to the event being in Germany.

Best Bets for UFC Fight Night 41

  • Bet Tom Niinimaki vs. Niklas Backstrom Over 2.5 Rounds –140 (Pinnacle)

Niklas Backstrom (7-0-0-1) looks like he’ll be a good prospect in the division and I expect him to hold his own in this fight. He’ll be fighting Tom Niinimaki (21-5-1) who has plenty of experience and just beat Yahya in his UFC debut in November of last year.

Niinimaki should be able to takedown Backstrom regularly, which will score him enough points to win by decision. I don’t think he should be such a big favorite though, which is why I’m betting on the fight to last over 2.5 rounds at much better odds.

  • Bet Francis Carmont –144 (Pinnacle) vs. C.B. Dollaway

I was surprised by C.B. Dollaway (14-5) in his last fight, but I don’t think we can expect him to all of a sudden start winning his fights by TKO/KO regularly. Francis Carmont (22-8) has been KO’ed once back in 2004 and there is no way Dollaway rocks him.

Carmont also has 80% takedown defense and good enough wrestling to keep the fight standing. Carmont rarely gets tagged and his striking is technical enough to beat Dollaway. I could see Carmont winning multiple ways, so I’m just sticking to the ML on this one.

  • Bet Sean Strickland vs. Luke Barnett Over 1.5 Rounds –170 (BetDSI)

Sean Strickland (14-0) and Luke Barnett (8-0) are two impressive prospects. This could end up being FOTN although I personally like the Niinimaki vs. Backstrom fight to win FOTN. I expect these two young guns to feel each other out in the opening round.

Strickland won his UFC debut in the 1st round while Barnett (3-0 UFC) has two early stoppage wins. Both fighters can finish, but that’s why I think these two will be cautious early on. I also like Barnett to win, as Strickland will struggle to close the distance on him.

  • Bet Blanco / Magomedov Parlay +115 (5Dimes)

Ruslan Magomedov (11-1) and Viktor Pesta (9-0) are making their UFC debuts on the prelims. Magomedov trains with a better camp and has fought better opposition than Pesta. If he can keep the fight standing he’ll definitely win this fight.

I’m also betting on Maximo Blanco (9-6-1-1) to beat Andy Ogle (9-4). Both fighters are struggling tremendously, but Blanco is easily the more talented fighter. As long as he’s mentally prepared he’ll likely be able to finish Ogle quickly in this fight.

I’ve also bet on parlay with six selections (Carmont ML + Niinimaki/Backstrom O2.5 + Strickland/Barnett O1.5 + Magomedov ML + Blanco ML + Alcantara ML) that pays +1100 odds. If it hits it’ll make up for some of the recent losses I’ve had.

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