UFC Fight Night 40 Predictions

On Saturday night UFC Fight Night 40 is in Cincinnati, Ohio with an excellent fight card considering it’s free. You can tune in online to watch the early prelims on UFC Fight Pass. The rest of the prelims and the main card fights are available live on Fox Sports 1.

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Best Bets for UFC Fight Night 40

• Bet on Erick Silva by Submission +150 (5Dimes) vs. Matt Brown

Matt Brown (18-11) is in his first fight since a back injury forced him to miss his last scheduled bout. Before the injury Brown went on an impressive 6-0 run with all of the wins by stoppage (TKO/KO). Silva has been KO’ed once in his career last year by Dong Hyun Kim.

I bet Silva ML close to when the lines opened, but they’ve since gone up considerably, which is why I recommend betting on him to win by submission. With Brown’s power, it’s likely that Silva will have to take this fight to the mat and earn the win by submission.

Brown has five losses in the UFC and four of those were by submission. Silva should understand the importance of this fight if he wants to keep moving up the division. Brown has had a long time out of the cage and I expect Silva to be able to jump on him early.

• Bet on Erik Koch vs. Daron Cruickshank ITD –130 (SportBet)

Erik Koch (14-3) was in the cage at the end of February when he beat Oliveira by TKO in R1. Daron Cruickshank (14-4) is 1-1 in his L2 fights, but both ended ITD. These fighters are exciting on their feet and I’m putting my money on one of them connecting hard.

Cruickshank likes to mix in head kicks often and he has multiple KO wins from his kicks. Koch has finished his opponent in 79% of his career wins and he’s looking to make a statement this year after going 0-2 in 2013. I like Koch to win, but his odds are too short.

• Bet Soa Palelei by TKO/KO –135 (5Dimes) vs. Ruan Potts

Ruan Potts (8-1) is looking to make a splash in his UFC debut against the much older Soa Palelei (20-3). The Aussie is 2-0 in the UFC and he has won his L10 fights by TKO/KO. Potts will look to try and take this fight to the mat where he’ll try to lock in a submission.

Palelei has already beat Krylov and Barry with his power and I don’t think Potts will be much of a problem although all I’ve seen of him is a couple videos on the internet. Potts will likely be a great fighter in time, but look for Palelei to lay into him in his debut.

• Bet Ed Herman +120 (BetDSI) vs. Rafael Natal

Rafael Natal (17-5-1) seems to be getting a lot of love despite being knocked out by Tim Kennedy in his last fight. Ed Herman (21-10) is always game for a fight and his career is winding down. I expect him to come out and look to earn one of his trademark wins.

Natal has pretty good wrestling and 78% takedown defense, but Herman is relentless. Natal is strong at defending on his feet, but he isn’t the best striker by any stretch. If Herman can takedown Natal he should be able to maintain top position while scoring points.

• Bet Silva / Koch / Means / Palelei Parlay +276 (Pinnacle)

I’ve already explained why I like three of these fighters. Tim Means (20-5-1) is fighting Neil Magny (9-3) and I don’t think this fight is going to get out of the first round. Means has looked great lately and I expect him to use his power to end this fight early.

Magny has an enticing reach advantage, but he won’t keep Means at a distance for long. I also like Eddie Wineland and Nik Lentz, but didn’t add them to this parlay because Pinnacle doesn’t have odds on those fights yet, but they both should get the victory.