UFC Fight Night 39 Predictions
We’re a little this week getting the picks up, but that’s partly due to the weird timing of the event. UFC Fight Night 39 is taking place in Abu Dhabi tomorrow (Friday). The main card is on at 2:00PM ET, so if you’re working tomorrow make sure you get your bets in.
UFC Fight Night 39 Best Bets
- Bet Roy Nelson –118 (Pinnacle) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Nelson may have lost two in a row (Miocic & Cormier), but this is a winnable fight against Minotauro. Nogueira doesn’t have a lot of mileage left in the tank. Since 2008 he is 4-4 in the UFC with two TKO/KO losses and I look for Nelson to finish this one fairly early.
Nogueira has an edge on the mat and is more technical, but his chin won’t be able to sustain punches from Nelson. The odds have come in from –190 on Nelson for some reason, but I’ll gladly jump on Nelson to win this fight at close to even money.
- Bet Ryan Laflare by Decision –115 (5Dimes) vs. John Howard
Howard has some power, but in his two UFC fights (2-0) he has had to win both by decision. Laflare is undefeated in his career (10-0) and he’s 3-0 in the UFC with all of his wins by decision. I see a number of people like Howard to take this fight by TKO/KO.
I on other hand think this one is going the distance and I like what Laflare brings to the table. Laflare is better at defending and both fighters are well rounded, so I expect Laflare to pull this one out. At the same time, I don’t think he should be a –350 favorite to win.
- Bet Tatsuya Kawajiri +111 (Pinnacle) vs. Clay Guida
Kawajiri opened up as a –155 favorite and has been bet into an underdog, which I think is insane. Guida doesn’t fight with the same aggressiveness that he once did. Since 2012 Guida is 1-2 with a win over a struggling Hioki and losses against Mendes and Maynard.
In his two losses he didn’t land a single takedown. Kawajiri is a decent wrestler that can land takedowns and stuff them. He’s also a more accurate fighter in the cage than Guida. This will likely go the distance and I like the more efficient fighter to win this one.
- Bet Chris Camozzi –130 (BetDSI) vs. Andrew Craig FIGHT IS OFF
Craig is 3-2 in the UFC, but just 1-2 in his L3 fights with his lone win over Leben. I haven’t been impressed with Craig and I think we’ll see Camozzi win this fight with his striking. Camozzi has lost two in a row (Souza & Larkin), but this is a chance to pick up a win.
He’s an active striker (3.97 SLpM) and Craig has poor striking defense (48%). Neither fighter is much of a threat to take this fight to the mat and therefore Camozzi should win with his striking. It may go the distance, so don’t get fancy and simply bet on the ML.
- Bet Nelson / Camozzi / Leites Parlay +301 (Pinnacle)
I think this is the best parlay for UFC Fight Night 39. Nelson and Camozzi I like a lot and I really don’t think Leites is going to lose to Trevor Smith. Leites is by far the better fighter, which is why he’s a –460 favorite. Leites will be looking to go 3-0 in the UFC.
You could leave Leites off the parlay, but he adds $72 to the payout on a $100 wager, which is a considerable amount. I also want to mention that I’ll be avoiding Yahya who is about a –170 favorite. I actually think he’ll lose to Bedford who is a tough fighter.
UFC Fight Night 39 Video Picks