UFC Fight Night 38 Predictions

The UFC is back in Brazil this weekend. UFC Fight Night 38 is on Sunday with the main card starting at 7:00PM ET. You can watch the fight card on Fox Sports 1. I’m not too excited about this card, but the rematch between Rua and Henderson should be interesting.

UFC Fight Night 38 Best Bets

  • Bet Mauricio Rua –229 (Pinnacle) vs. Dan Henderson

Mauricio Rua (22-8) looked great in his last fight, as he knocked out Te Huna 1:03 into the 1st round. Rua lost to Henderson in 2011 by decision, as he lost the opening three rounds of the fight. Rua landed more significant strikes (96 vs. 77) in the fight though.

He also won the takedown battle (5-1), but a slow start cost him the fight. Since then Henderson is 0-3 and with this fight being in Brazil I’m on Rua. In the 1st fight he landed more significant strikes (96 vs. 77) and he also had more takedowns (5 vs. 1).

Rua by decision at +260 (5Dimes) also looks enticing, as I think there is a good chance that he doesn’t finish Henderson.

  • Bet Fabio Maldonado +102 (Pinnacle) vs. Gian Villante

Fabio Maldonado (20-6) has won two fights in a row by decision and in those fights he landed 187 significant strikes. He was taken down three times as well in those fights, which is a bit worrisome due to the fact that Villante is a great wrestler.

If Maldonado can keep Villante from taking him down he should win this fight by TKO/KO or decision. He has the edge in experience and he’ll be fighting in Brazil. He has power and Villante has been knocked out twice before. I’m simply betting Maldonado ML.

  • Bet Taisumov vs. Prazeres to Go the Distance –150 (5Dimes)

Mairbek Taisumov (21-4) is favored to beat Michel Prazeres (17-1) despite the fight being in Brazil. I think picking the winner in this fight is tough, but I lean Taisumov by decision. Both fighters attempt a lot of takedowns in the cage and this fight may be boring.

Taisumov has shown that he has knockout power, as he has 10 TKO/KO wins, but Prazeres has only lost by decision once. Taisumov will have a 5.5’’ reach advantage, so Prazeres will have to make sure that he’s careful not to leave himself open for big shots.

  • Bet Jorgensen / Taisumov / Rua Parlay +193 (BetDSI)

My main parlay is Rua, Taisumov and Jorgensen all to win SU in their fights. Scott Jorgensen (14-8) is fighting Jussier Da Silva (15-3) and I think Jorgensen will have the edge in the stand-up. He takes a lot of shots, but he also dishes it out more actively than Silva.

Jorgensen is on a bad run lately, but this is a prelim fight where he should be able to get back in the win column. I already explained why I like Rua. Taisumov should win his fight. He has several edges to exploit including his reach in the stand-up.

posted in Predictions

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