UFC 180, Bellator 131 & WSOF 15 Predictions

Saturday is packed with MMA fights to bet on. We have UFC 180, Bellator 131 and WSOF 15 on Saturday night. Between these three events I’m going to point out my best bets and hopefully we’ll have a big night. Let’s get into my predictions for these fights.

UFC 180 Best Bets

  • Fabricio Werdum by Submission –170 (5Dimes) vs. Mark Hunt

Fabricio Werdum (18-5-1) is 4-0 in the UFC since 2012 with some wins over big names. Mark Hunt (10-8-1) beat Nelson by KO, but he had two consecutive losses prior to that fight. Hunt has been submitted six times in his career and Werdum is great at submissions.

Hunt has a lot of power, but Werdum has a 5’’ reach advantage in this fight and will keep him at a distance. Werdum can look for the takedown early and often. If he can get Hunt on the mat he’ll be able to work his submissions and I expect Hunt to tap out.

  • Dennis Bermudez –172 (Bovada) vs. Ricardo Lamas

I’m surprised that the odds on Dennis Bermudez (14-3) are so low against Ricardo Lamas (14-3). Lamas is 5-1 in the UFC with his lone loss against Aldo. Bermudez is 7-1 in the UFC and is on a 7-fight win streak. He’s a much more well rounded fighter.

Lamas has some power, but he mostly wins by decision. Bermudez will be able to use his wrestling to win this fight. He averages 4.64 TD’s per 15 minutes and Lamas only has 46% TD defense. Bermudez is my top bet on the entire UFC 180 fight card.

  • Jake Ellenberger +185 (BetLion365) vs. Kelvin Gastelum

Kelvin Gastelum (9-0) is 4-0 in the UFC, but this is a step up in competition and I don’t think he’s going to win. Jake Ellenberger (29-8) has lost two fights in a row against MacDonald and Lawler, but this is a chance for him to redeem himself against a good prospect.

Gastelum only has 60% TD defense and Ellenberger averages 2.65 TD’s per 15 minutes. I also think Ellenberger can use his 2’’ reach advantage to keep Gastelum at a distance. If he can do that and work some TD’s he’ll be able to win this fight as an underdog.

UFC 180 Fabricio Werdum vs Mark Hunt Video Predictions

Kamikaze Scottie Mike Waz

Bellator 131 Best Bets

  • Stephan Bonnar +138 (Bovada) vs. Tito Ortiz

Stephan Bonnar (15-8) lost to Silva in his last UFC fight and now he is with Bellator. He’ll fight Tito Ortiz (17-11-1) who won in his first Bellator fight against Shlemenko. Bonnar has been KO’ed three times, but I expect him to grind out a submission victory.

If he’s unable to submit Ortiz I still think that Bonnar will win this fight. Ortiz hasn’t won by TKO/KO since 2006 and his power is now very limited. Bonnar is a warrior and as an underdog I really like him. Take Bonnar to win the main event at Bellator 131.

Bellator 131 Tito Ortiz vs Stephan Bonnar Predictions – Mike Waz

WSOF 15 Best Bets

  • Melvin Guillard +165 (5 Dimes) vs. Justin Gaethje

Justin Gaethje (12-0) is 5-0 with WSOF and he has won all of his WSOF fights by TKO/KO. This will be his toughest test, as he comes up against the veteran Melvin Guillard (32-13-2-2). Guillard won his WSOF debut and I like him as an underdog in this spot.

In 49 career fights Guillard has been knocked out just once. He has a great chin and Gaethje is unlikely to get the knockout. As this fight progresses I expect Guillard to get stronger. This will be an exciting fight between two strikers and I’m going with experience.

WSOF 15 Dave Branch vs Yushin Okami Predictions – Mike Waz

MMA Saturday Parlay

  • Werdum / Bermudez / Chandler / Okami Parlay +242 (5Dimes)

Werdum and Bermudez are on the UFC 180 fight card and I’ve explained why I like them. Michael Chandler fights Will Brooks in the Bellator 131 co-main event and Yushin Okami fights Dave Branch in the WSOF 15 main event. I’ve bet 3 units on this parlay.

posted in Predictions, Videos

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