UFC 177 Predictions Dillashaw vs Barao 2
I’m definitely not overly excited for this pay-per-view card, as the only fight that I really want to watch is the main event. Other than that the rest of the fights aren’t that exciting. Considering this is a PPV card I expect fairly weak sales numbers.
UFC 177 Best Bets
The action will be coming to us live from the Sleep Train Arena in Sacramento, California. There is one fight on Fight Pass, the prelims begin at 8:00pm ET on Fox Sports 1 and the main card fights will get underway at 10:00pm ET on PPV.
- Bet T.J. Dillashaw –150 (BetOnline) vs. Renan Barao
T.J. Dillashaw (10-2) shocked everyone by dominating Renan Barao (32-2) back in May to win the bantamweight title. The win wasn’t a fluke either. He was winning every round and held a 140-64 striking advantage in the fight, which is significant.
Everyone expects Barao to get revenge and win his belt back. I don’t think that’s the case. Dillashaw lands more strikes, has better accuracy and strong defense. Barao will put forth a better performance, but it won’t be enough to win the belt back.
- Bet Tony Ferguson ITD +105 (5Dimes) vs. Danny Castillo
Since 2013, Danny Castillo (17-6) is 3-1 in the UFC with a decision loss to Barboza. He has wins over Means and Brenneman in that time. Tony Ferguson (15-3) has won two fights in a row by stoppage since losing to Michael Johnson back in 2012.
Ferguson has never been taken down and he’s an active striker (4.48 SLpM) that fights at a distance. He’ll have a 5’’ reach edge in this fight. Castillo has been submitted twice and KO’ed twice in his career. I expect Ferguson to get the finish.
Bet Bethe Correia –135 (BetDSI) vs. Shayna Baszler
Bethe Correia (8-0) is 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Kedzie and Duke already. Shayna Baszler (15-8) is a submission specialist that has 14 wins by submission. However, she is just 1-2 in her last three fights with losses coming against McMann and Davis.
Correia is a patient fighter with cage smarts. She’s hard to takedown (83% TD Defense). She also lands more strikes than Baszler (5.20 SLpM vs. 2.85 SLpM) and is more accurate (51% vs. 31%). Baszler has poor stand-up defense also (5.61 SApM).
- Bet Derek Brunson –122 (SportsInteraction) vs. Lorenz Larkin
Some of you may think I’m crazy for betting on Derek Brunson (11-3), as his conditioning has been poor in the UFC and he’s known to gas by the 3rd round. I just think that Brunson’s southpaw stance and 6’’ reach advantage will cause problems for Larkin.
Brunson also averages 4.01 TD attempts per 15 minutes. Larkin has 79% TD defense, but Brunson should be able to land a TD or two each round if he’s aggressive. Larkin is just 1-3 in his last four fights and I expect Brunson to pull off the win despite gassing late.
- Bet Ferguson / Ferreira Parlay +113 (Pinnacle)
I’m keeping it simple with my UFC 177 parlay and going with Ferguson and Carlos Diego Ferreira to beat Ramsey Nijem. Ferreira was dominant in his 38 second UFC debut win. Nijem has won two fights this year, but Ferreira will be able to win by submission.