UFC 173 Predictions

The Bellator PPV event was a success, but ended up being terrible for me in terms of betting. I’ll be looking to bounce back after not hitting a single pick on the Bellator card last week. UFC is back in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand Garden Arena for this PPV event.

UFC 173 Best Bets

  • Bet Renan Barao vs. T.J. Dillashaw to Start Round 3 –142 (5Dimes)

Both Renan Barao (32-1-0-1) and T.J Dillashaw (9-2) are still in the prime of their careers. In seven UFC fights Dillashaw is 5-2 with his losses against Dodson and Assuncao. Barao hasn’t lost since his 1st professional fight and I can’t imagine him losing to Dillashaw.

Barao has the uncanny ability to switch gears and adjust to his opponents. His takedown defense is incredible as well (95%). Barao finished Wineland in R2 and Faber in R1, but his three fights prior to that started round 3 and I feel that’s the best bet in this one.

  • Bet Daniel Cormier vs. Dan Henderson to Go Distance –125 (SportBet)

Daniel Cormier (14-0) remains undefeated after knocking out Cummins in an easy fight for him. I think Cormier will win by decision, but that’s at –120, so it’s smart to just bet on this fight going the distance at –125 just in case Henderson pulls off a shocking upset.

Cormier beat Mir and Nelson, but won both by decision, which I think is likely to happen here. Henderson is 43 now, but he just won by TKO over Rua earlier this year. Evans and Machida both beat Henderson, but couldn’t stop him and I don’t Cormier will either.

  • Bet Robbie Lawler –210 (Pinnacle) vs. Jake Ellenberger

Robbie Lawler (22-10-0-1) is back in the cage after losing by decision against Hendricks. Jake Ellenberger (29-7) is just 2-2 in his last four fights and in those fights he has only landed three takedowns. Lawler has deceptive takedown defense and should be fine.

If this fight can stay standing up Lawler will have a huge edge in striking. He lands more strikes per minute, he’s more accurate, has a small reach advantage and most importantly he’s a southpaw, which I think is going to pose a lot of problems for Ellenberger.

  • Bet Barao / Cormier / Iaquinta / Rivera Parlay +307 (Pinnacle)
  • Bet Barao / Cormier / Iaquinta / Krause Parlay +333 (Pinnacle)

I really can’t see Barao or Cormier losing their fights. Al Iaquinta (8-2-1) has won three in a row and has looked good in those fights despite not stopping any of his opponents. Mitch Clarke (10-2) got his first UFC win in his 3rd fight, but the win was nothing special.

Iaquinta feels like a safer pick to me than Lawler, which is why I’m using him on my parlays. I’ve also added an underdog to each, as I think both Francisco Rivera and James Krause have a great shot at winning their fights on the main card at UFC 173.

Rivera has won his last two fights by knockout and his boxing will give him a stand-up edge over Mizugaki although he has to make sure he keeps the fight standing. Krause fights Varner and I like the younger fighter to outwork Varner and win by submission.

posted in Predictions

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