UFC 170 Predictions

UFC 170 is in Las Vegas at the Mandalay Bay Events Center. The main card was initially much better than it is now, but several fights had to be cancelled. For a pay-per-view card the card looks a little weak, but there are still a few fights that I’m interested to watch.

Best Bets for UFC 170

Ronda Rousey (8-0) is still undefeated and she has won every fight by armbar. Tate took her into the 3rd round in her last fight, but I expected that, as Tate had previously fought Rousey. Sara McMann (7-0) has some power, but she won’t survive this fight.

McMann might make it out of the opening round, but Rousey will eventually lock in her trademark armbar. McMann will be tough to takedown, as she has never been taken down yet due to her wrestling base, but Rousey will find a way to get this fight on the mat.

Rory MacDonald (15-2) is coming off a split decision loss against Lawler where he looked terrible. MacDonald needed some time to regroup and I expect him to look much better on Saturday. Demain Maia (18-5) is also coming off a split decision loss (Jake Shields).

Both fighters have been knocked out once in their career, but this fight will go the distance. The reason I’m taking MacDonald is due to his huge 4.5’’ reach advantage. MacDonald has great takedown defense as well to keep this fight standing where he has the edge.

  • Robert Whittaker +114 (Pinnacle) vs. Stephen Thompson

This should be a stand-up war between two powerful strikers. Robert Whittaker (11-3) is 2-1 in the UFC after losing to McGee, but I thought he looked good against McGee. Stephen Thompson (8-1) has won two in a row and he’s now 3-1 in the UFC.

Whittaker averages 4.52 SLpM compared to Thompson who averages 4.35 SLpM. The reason I like Whittaker to take this fight is due to his stand-up defense (69%). This is a tough test for both fighters, but Whittaker is the better all-around fighter in my opinion.

  • T.J. Waldburger +172 (BetDSI) vs. Mike Pyle

T.J. Waldburger (16-8) is just 4-3 in the UFC and he looked bad in his last fight. Amagov knocked him out in the 1st round. Waldburger has been knocked out six times now in his career due to his weak chin, but Mike Pyle (25-9-1) has lost some power with age.

Pyle has a great run in 2012 where he went 3-0 in the UFC with all of the wins coming by TKO/KO. I think the younger fighter will be able to dictate where this fight takes place. If Waldburger gets this fight to the ground he can lock in a submission and win.

I have two parlays so far for the UFC 170 card. Rousey, Cormier, Koch and Assuncao are on one and that pays plus money while the other one is just Rousey, Cormier and Koch ($100 Pays $70). There is no way that I can see the 2nd parlay losing.

Koch is a huge favorite against Oliveira on the prelims. If we can get through that fight and Assuncao on the prelims then we’ll only need Rousey and Cormier in the final two fights of the night. I can’t see Rousey losing although this is her toughest fight.

Cormier should easily win and he’s the easiest pick on the card now that he’s fighting Cummins who is making his UFC debut. He’s also taking this fight on short notice whereas Cormier has been training. I expect both of these parlays to hit again this week.

posted in Predictions

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