UFC 169 Predictions

UFC 169 is in New Jersey at the Prudential Center on Saturday night and the main card will be available on PPV. This is another event that will be worth the money, as we have two title fights again. However, I’m not sure how competitive the co-main event will be.

Best Bets for UFC 169

• Bet on Jose Aldo by TKO/KO –170 (5Dimes)

Jose Aldo (23-1) is a huge favorite to beat Ricardo Lamas (13-2) in the co-main event for the featherweight title. Lamas is 4-0 in the UFC since he joined the promotion in 2011, but he has only fought twice in the last two years with wins over Hioki and Koch.

Lamas has some power, as he has knocked out Grice and Koch. Aldo has 14 TKO/KO wins including one against Mendes (2012) and one against Jung last year. Aldo will win a striking battle and that’s what he’ll look to do. He has to stop the takedowns of Lamas.

Fortunately for Aldo, he is one of the best fighters at defending takedowns (92%). Lamas only has two losses, but both of those were TKO/KO losses against Danny Castillo and Alcantara. Aldo will keep this fight standing up and win by TKO/KO in the 3^rd or 4^th round.

• Bet Ali Bagautinov –125 (BetDSI)

I went back and forth on this fight, but I went with Ali Bagautinov (12-2) to beat John Lineker (23-6). The Russian is 2-0 since joining the UFC and he has looked good, but this is a real test for him. Lineker is likely to barely make weight, but you can’t deny his power.

Lineker has 11 TKO/KO wins and he has won by knockout in his last three fights. I took Bagautinov because he has the ability to take this fight to the ground and grind out a decision. If he chooses to slug it out with Lineker this fight could end up going either way.

• Bet Abel Trujillo +130 (BetDSI)

Abel Trujillo (11-5-1) is 2-1-1 in the UFC with his lone loss coming against Nurmagomedov. Other than getting thrown around by the Russian he has looked great. Trujillo has great power (4 TKO/KO Wins) and he’s landing an average of 3.98 strikes per minute.

Jamie Varner (21-8-1-2) has been alternating wins his last four fights and he just recently lost to Tibau by decision. Varner will look to wrestle Trujillo, but I think the Trujillo will have worked extensively on his defense. This will be a big win for Trujillo in the division.

• Bet on Barao / Overeem / Aldo +111 (Pinnacle)

Renan Barao (31-1) fights Urijah Faber (30-6) in the main event for the interim bantamweight title. Barao beat Faber once in the past by decision and I expect the same result. Barao is a more refined striker than Faber, he has more power and he’ll win this fight.

Alistair Overeem (36-13-1) and Frank Mir (16-8) both need a win badly. The reason I’m betting on Overeem is because Mir has had trouble against power strikers in the division, Seven of Mir’s eight losses have been by TKO/KO and Overeem should get the win.