UFC 164 Betting Predictions

We’ve been treated to some great UFC events the last couple weeks and now we have UFC 164 on PPV this Saturday coming to use live from the Bradley Center in Milwaukee. I can’t wait to see the rematch between Henderson and Pettis for the title.

UFC 164 Betting Predictions

  • Henderson vs. Pettis Goes the Distance -140 (5Dimes)

I’m not backing a fighter in the main event because I think it’s going to be very close. Pettis beat Henderson in WEC and landed an amazing kick after jumping off of the cage. Don’t expect to see that same kick again, but Pettis is going to give Henderson a run.

Pettis is 3-1 in the UFC with two straight wins by KO that earned him the KO fight bonus each time. Pettis has power, but Smooth is going to know that coming in. Henderson has gone the distance in his L8, which started with a 5-round decision loss to Pettis.

  • Ben Rothwell +113 (SportBet) vs. Vera

Vera is now 35 years old and he’ll take on 31-year old veteran Rothwell on the main card. Rothwell is a small underdog after opening up at -130 odds. The public is on Vera to win, but with two KO losses in his L4 fights I’m going to take Rothwell to win.

I think it’s likely Rothwell wins by TKO/KO (+225 Odds), but I’m happy with the plus odds on the money line. Rothwell has struggled in the cage lately, but this is a fight he can win. He knocked out Schaub last year and I think he bounces back with a TKO/KO win.

  • Frank Mir +158 (SportBet) vs. Barnett

Mir opened at +170 and has shortened to +158 right now with most shops offering lower odds. I’d get on Mir now if you like him, as these odds are likely to drop by Saturday night. Barnett is known for his great submission game in the cage, but not for his power.

The problem is Mir has never been submitted in the cage. He has been knocked out 6X, but not submitted and that’s why I think he has a great shot to win here. Mir will come out strong in this fight, as he needs a win badly after losing his L2 fights in the UFC.

  • Gleison Tibau +128 (Pinnacle) vs. Varner

Varner looked good in his split decision win over Guillard, but I think Tibau presents a tough match-up for him in the cage. Tibau has some impressive wins in his career as well. I think the deciding factor in this fight is whether or not Tibau can stuff the takedowns.

He has stuffed 93% of takedown attempts against him and Varner may find it difficult taking him down. Varner’s takedown defense is just 66% and both fighters love to work takedowns. I give the edge to Tibau if he doesn’t keep the fight standing too long.

I’ve decided to not bet any parlays yet because I’m not sold on many of the favorites this weekend. I’ll most likely just stick to the bets above and add some fight bonus props bets to my card later in the week once the odds are released for that market.

posted in Predictions

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