UFC 161 Predictions

UFC 161 is this Saturday (June 15^th 2013) at the MTS Centre in Winnipeg (Canada). This fight card was supposed to be better, but injuries forced changes to the main event and co-main event. There is no longer a bantamweight title on the card.

The other fight that has to be cancelled was Rua vs. Nogueira. The good news for Canadians going to the event is that Nelson is now fighting in the co-main event against Miocic. The main event now features light heavyweights Henderson vs. Evans.

UFC 161 Betting Predictions

• Bet on Rashad Evans -115 (SportsInteraction)

I’m going to give Rashad Evans (17-3-1) the benefit of the doubt in his last fight where he lost to Nogueira (Decision). He couldn’t mustard any sustained attacks in the fight and he just stood their trying to box. Evans needs to utilize his wrestling in this fight.

Everyone knows Henderson will try to end the fight with his big right-hand, so there is no excuse for Evans not to take this fight down to the ground immediately. Henderson doesn’t have great takedown defense and Evans needs a win after losing his L2.

• Bet on Roy Nelson by TKO/KO -145 (5Dimes)

Roy “Big Country” Nelson (19-7) has knocked out Herman, Mitrione and Kongo in his L3 fights (All in 1^st Round). Struve just beat (TKO in R2) Stipe Miocic (9-1) in his last fight. When Nelson fought Struve in 2010 he knocked him out in 39 seconds flat.

Miocic was preparing for an easier fight against Soa Palelei who was going to make his UFC debut, but now Miocic has to move up to the co-main event to fight Nelson. Nelson will line up his shot and end this fight early with another TKO/KO.

• Bet on Alexis Davis Inside Distance +100 (SportBet)

Alexis Davis (13-5) will be the first Canadian woman to fight in the UFC. Davis is 5-1 in her L6 fights with her lone loss against Kaufmann who was the Strikeforce women’s champion. Davis bounced back from that loss with two straight submission wins.

Rosi Sexton (13-2) is a tough competitor, but she used to fight mostly at 125 lbs. Davis should be too big and strong for Sexton in this fight. Davis is also just 28 while Sexton is 35. Sexton will get submitted for the first time in her career in this fight.

• Bet on Tyron Woodley TKO/KO +235 (5Dimes)

Most people expect Tyron Woodley (11-1) and Jake Shields (27-6-1) to go the distance. Shields has only been stopped twice in his career. Three fights ago he was knocked out by Ellenberger. Woodley has deceptive power and his striking is very quick.

Woodley won his UFC debut in 36 seconds against Hieron at UFC 156. Shields is known for his wrestling, but Woodley is also an excellent wrestler and Shields is going to have trouble trying to takedown Woodley. I think Woodley finishes this fight by KO.

• Bet on Nelson TKO/KO -145 / Barry/Jordan ITD -260 / Pierson -140 (+301) at 5Dimes

The Pat Barry (8-5) vs. Shawn Jordan (14-4) fight has knockout written all over it. Barry’s L5 fights have ended by stoppage with 3 ending in R1. Jordan has 10 TKO/KO wins in his career and only 3 of his fights have gone the distance.

Sean Pierson (13-6) has won his L2 fights against Hecht and Benoist by decision. Robertson is 1-2 in the UFC and earned his 1^st win in his last fight against Jardine. This fight should stay standing and Pierson has a big edge in the stand-up in my opinion.