UFC 159 Predictions

The UFC is back on PPV this Saturday with UFC 159 and there is another title fight in the main event. Jon Jones will be defending his light heavyweight title against Chael Sonnen who is going to move up from middleweight for the chance to win a title.

This weekend the main card is mainly full of big favorites that don’t interest me much SU. The prelims look much better and I’m also betting on a few of the props at 5Dimes. I’ll list my best bets and a quick reasoning for my picks now.

UFC 159 Best Bets & Odds

• Bet on Michael Bisping -165 (BetDSI) to Win vs. Alan Belcher

In my opinion Alan Belcher (18-7) is not quite on the same level that Michael Bisping (23-5) is and both fighters have such similar fighting styles that I lean towards the better fighter.  Bisping is more active in striking and takedowns when compared to Alan.

Belcher doesn’t defend as well as Bisping either and I think he’ll have a hard time stopping the boxing of Bisping. Belcher lost a fairly uneventful fight against Okami in his last fight and I expect Bisping to win a more convincing decision win than Okami did.

• Bet on James Head -150 (Pinnacle) to Win vs. Nick Catone

Nick Catone (9-4) looked good in his decision win over Philippou in 2011, but last year he went 0-2 with losses coming against Camozzi and Waldburger. James Head on the other hand was 2-1 in the UFC last year with wins over Abedi and Ebersole.

Those aren’t easy wins for anyone in the welterweight division and I think Head outmatches Catone. Head has shown good takedown defense in the UFC and if he can keep this fight standing he’ll win, as Catone is most effective on the ground.

• Bet on Steven Siler -120 (Pinnacle) to Win vs. Kurt Holobaugh

Steven Siler (21-10) went 3-0 in the UFC after appearing on TUF 14, but he lost his last fight to Elkins. Kurt Holobaugh (9-1) was impressive on the amateur circuit and he displayed his effective submissions, but he lost his Strikeforce debut last time out.

Holobaugh lost to Pat Healy because he was unable to takedown Healy and work submissions. Siler hasn’t been that good at takedown defense yet in his career, but he has good striking for a featherweight and I expect him to earn a decision victory.

• Bet on Roy Nelson -110 (5Dimes) to Win by TKO/KO vs. Cheick Kongo

I’ve always been a fan of Cheick Kongo (18-7-2), but his career is just about finished now and fighting Roy Nelson (18-7) who has a rock-solid chin and 11 TKO victories isn’t the best idea. Nelson can take punishment as we’ve all seen and then pounce.

Kongo has only been knocked out twice in his career, but one of those was two fights ago against Mark Hunt. Nelson has been on a tear lately, as he has earned TKO/KO victories over Herman and Mitrione in his L2 fights. I like Nelson to win by TKO/KO.

I don’t have any parlay bets made yet this week and I’m not sure I will even have any. I’m looking at a few more prop bets right now only. Some of the big favourites like Phil Davis and Jim Miller on the main card worry me too much. I do like Jones though! A bet I really like is Khabilov wins by 3 round decision+333@Dimes.