TUF Nations Finale Predictions

The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) Nations Finale is tomorrow night (Wednesday) at the Colisee Pepsi in Quebec City. The card starts at 7PM tomorrow night and will be on Fox Sports 1. There is also an event this weekend, so we’ll have plenty to bet on the next few days.

TUF Nations Finale Best Bets

• Bet Olivier Aubin-Mercier –122 (SportBet) vs. Chad Laprise

The good news is a Canadian will win the welterweight tournament. In this fight we have two different styles. Chad Laprise (7-0) is a power striker that will be looking for the knockout. Olivier Aubin-Mercier (4-0) will look to lock in a rear-naked choke like always.

Aubin-Mercier has won every one of his pro fights by submission in the 1^st round. He knows coming into this fight that Laprise has a ton of power, so I don’t think he’ll even try to stand with him. Look for him to take the fight to the mat and win by submission.

• Bet Kyle Noke –106 (Pinnacle) vs. Patrick Cote

Kyle Noke (20-6-1) and Patrick Cote (19-8) were the two coaches on TUF Nations in case you didn’t watch the reality series. I’m on the Australian fighter because I was impressed with how good he looked against Brenneman when he dropped in weight class.

I’m expecting Noke to take this fight down to the mat where he can utilize his skills to dominate the fight. Cote only stops 49% of takedown attempts against him, so Noke should have no problem getting the fight to the mat. I like Noke by sub or decision.

• Bet Mitch Gagnon –270 (BetOnline) vs. Tim Gorman

Out of the mid-sized favorites I think Mitch Gagnon (10-2) presents the best chance to win. Tim Gorman (8-2) has some power, as he has won six fights by TKO/KO, but Gagnon has never been knocked out plus the Canadian has an excellent submission game.

Gagnon has won all of his fights by submission and he’s on a 2-fight UFC win streak. Gorman is being tipped because of his power, but I can’t see him finishing Gagnon and once this fight gets taken down to the mat Gagnon should be able to lock in a submission.

• Bet George Roop –115 (Pinnacle) vs. Dustin Kimura

Sure, George Roop (14-10-1) can be inconsistent, which was evident in his recent loss to Rivera. Dustin Kimura (11-1) is a submission specialist. He’s 2-1 in the UFC and all of his fights have ended by submission. He’s averaging 1.93 submission attempts every round.

Roop has been submitted four times in his career, but the last time was back in 2009. Kimura hasn’t beaten anyone yet and he loss to Gagnon who isn’t spectacular. Roop is a veteran with a huge height and reach advantage in this fight. I’m betting on him to win.

I’ve parlayed Aubin-Mercier, Noke and Gagnon at +380 odds (Pinnacle). Dustin Poirier should easily win his fight and could be added to the parlay, but at –700 odds I didn’t bother. I’m also staying away from Bisping and Jimmo as favorites on this card.

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