TUF 17 Finale Predictions

The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale is this Saturday in Las Vegas and the main card looks promising. The finals fight between Hall and Gastelum should be excellent and there are also a couple other fights on the card that look great including the main event.

TUF 17 Finals Best Bets

•  Bet on Travis Browne -250 (5Dimes) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

Travis Browne (13-1-1) lost his first career fight last time out against Antonio Silva by TKO in R1. He’ll look to avenge that loss this weekend against Gabriel Gonzaga (14-6) who has come back from retirement and strung three submission wins together.

Browne has 100% takedown defense and Gonzaga relies on his takedowns (3.42 takedowns per 15 minutes). If Browne is able to stay on his feet then his striking will earn him the win. Gonzaga has been knocked out 5X and I think it’ll happen again.

• Bet on Daniel Pineda -120 (Pinnacle) vs. Justin Lawrence

The experienced Daniel Pineda (17-9) fights the youngster Justin Lawrence (4-1) on the Facebook prelims. Pineda has lost his L2 fights against Mike Brown and Carvalho, which is why we’re getting close to even money on him in this fight.

Lawrence was knocked out by Holloway and this time around I think he’ll have problems with the wrestling of Pineda. Look for Pineda to take this fight down early and work submissions (2.26 submissions per 15 minutes) while taking no chances.

• Bet on Miesha Tate +116 (Pinnacle) vs. Cat Zingano

Cat Zingano (7-0) is getting a ton of hype and her odds have gone from an opening of +135 to -115 currently. Many bettors have been questioning whether Miesha Tate (13-3) is focused on the fight, but I think she is and wants a crack at Rousey for the title.

Tate needs to utilize her wrestling and control the tempo of the fight. Zingano has excellent jiu-jitsu and will try to work her own takedowns, but I like Tate’s experience. She has fought the best women in MMA and at plus money I’m going with her.

• Bet on Faber / Hall / Browne +115 (BetOnline)

A Faber, Hall and Browne parlay is paying just over evens at BetOnline. Faber should make easy work of Jorgensen in the main event and Hall was very impressive during this season of TUF and it would be a disappointment if he didn’t win this Saturday.

Hall comes into this fight after earning some impressive wins on the show including one of the best KO’s I’ve seen. Hall is very technical and expected to win this weekend and jump right into the middleweight division afterwards.

• Bet on Pineda / Tate / McDaniel +535 (BetDSI)

I recommend a ½ unit bet on this parlay, as it’s a bit of a longshot that all three will hit. I explained why I like Pineda and Tate in my picks above. I also added McDaniel to this parlay to make it payout more. McDaniel has a nice match-up against Smith.

Both fighters were on Team Jones this season. McDaniel has an experience edge that I think will play a role and I also think he was better this season despite losing twice. The two fights he lost on TUF 17 were against the two fighters that made the finals.